By Quetya Aubin
Dans un monde en perpétuelle mutation, le Sud global, cet ensemble de pays en développement d’Afrique, d’Amérique latine, d’Asie et d’Océanie, continue de naviguer entre espoirs de prospérité et réalités amères de paupérisation. Depuis leur indépendance, ces nations ont cherché à s’affirmer sur la scène économique mondiale, mais les dynamiques du commerce international ont souvent contrecarré leurs ambitions. Le professeur Claude Albagli, éminent spécialiste du développement économique et président de l’Institut CEDIMES, abordera ces enjeux lors d’un webinaire qui sera organisé par le Centre de Recherche en Gestion et en Économie du Développement (CReGED) de l’Université Quisqueya (UniQ) en Haïti, le 15 décembre 2025. Intitulée « Le Sud global de la détérioration des termes de l’échange à la démondialisation : Un demi-siècle d’espérances et de déconvenues « , cette conférence promet d’éclairer un demi-siècle de transformations géoéconomiques. Cet article vise à contextualiser ce thème à partir de la littérature scientifique, en éveillant la curiosité de tous et de toutes pour cet événement qui entend interrogerl’avenir des pays émergents dans un contexte de crises écologiques et technologiques.
The CREGED, the first laboratory in economics-management of UniQ, created in March 2001 within the Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences (FSEA), plays a central role in Haitian research in economics and management. It is a Laboratory authorized to host doctoral students by the Doctoral College of Haiti since 2015, following an evaluation by a commission of international experts. It focuses on growth and development strategies, with two main axes: entrepreneurship and innovation, and development financing. His work compares the development policies implemented in Haiti and proposes alternatives for sustainable development. In this context, it has developed a space for scientific consultation and dissemination called « The « CREGED LUNDIS » for the dissemination of economic thinking, management data and research results. This space is a series dedicated to academic exchange that highlights crucial issues for countries like Haiti that are facing persistent economic vulnerabilities.
The deterioration of the terms of exchange, the central concept of the conference, is rooted in the hypothesis of Prebisch-Singer, formulated independently by RaúlPrebisch and Hans Singer in 1950. This theory assumes that the terms of trade – the ratio between export and import prices – deteriorate over time for commodity-exporting countries (typically from the global South) for the benefit of exporters of manufactured goods (from the North).
Under this assumption, primary commodity prices (agricultural, mining, energy) decline relative to industrial products due to factors such as low demand elasticity for raw materials and technological asymmetries. Recent empirical studies covering the period 1900-2015 confirm a secular decline for eleven major amenities, reinforcing the idea that this trend is not a statistical artifact but a structural reality. For the global South, this meant that, after independence, export earnings were eroded, undermining the hopes of autonomous development. As a country like Senegal, dependent on coffee or soya, a persistent decline in international prices would force them to export more to import the same volume of machinery or technology, perpetuating a vicious cycle of underdevelopment.
Pourtant, les années 1970 ont apporté un contrepoint avec le choc pétrolier de 1973, où l’OPEP a fait flamber les prix des matières premières, ruinant temporairement l’hypothèse de Prebisch-Singer. Ce renversement a illustré la volatilité des marchés, mais n’a pas inversé la tendance à long terme. L’effondrement de l’Union soviétique en 1991 a ensuite ouvert l’ère de la mondialisation triomphante, promue comme le « sésame du développement « . La libéralisation des échanges, via l’OMC et les zones de libre-échange, a boosté le ratio exportations/PIB mondial de 15 % à 25 % avant la crise de 2008. Les bénéfices pour le Sud global ont été tangibles : plus de 1,2 milliard de personnes sont sorties de l’extrême pauvreté, principalement en Chine, grâce aux délocalisations et aux investissements étrangers. La mondialisation a favorisé la croissance économique, l’accès à de nouveaux marchés et la diffusion de technologies, améliorant les standards de vie.
However, the disadvantages are obvious because inequalities have increased, leading to deindustrialisation in the North and excessive dependence on the South, with abyssal trade deficits never before reached as the US billion daily vis-à-vis China. Analyses point out that globalization has exacerbated social and political disparities, promoting economic populism.
Today, we are witnessing accelerated demonization, marked by a decline in domestic markets, economic sovereignism and increased protectionism. The impacts on developing countries are ambivalent. On the one hand, it leads to a reduction in trade and investment flows that can slow growth and innovation; on the other, it encourages self-sufficiency and protects against external shocks.
The VOCID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions (such as the war in Ukraine) have amplified this movement, with threatened economic convergence and rising inequalities among nations. For small, export-dependent, low-income countries, this could hinder poverty reduction. In addition, there are environmental constraints as the fight against climate change imposes restrictions on global transport, favouring the relocation of supply chains to reduce the carbon footprint.
Artificial intelligence (AI) emerges as a disruptive factor in this equation. It accelerates demonisation by making robots impervious to wage costs, encouraging relocation to the North and marginalizing the unindustrialized countries of the South. How, in this unprecedented landscape, can the nations of the South undertake a real takeoff? It is precisely this question that Professor Albagli will try to answer. He has a great expertise that builds on his academic training as a Doctord State in Economics and , former student of Maurice Allais, holder of the Nobel Prize in Economics. Then, he served for 15 years in sub-Saharan Africa and visited more than 80 countries, giving him some international experience.
President of the CEDIMES Institute, a francophone academic federation with sixty delegations, he has directed numerous theses and published various articles and books on mutations in Europe, Africa and Asia. His annual missions to China since 1990 total four years of stay. He has received some decorations in his country and he holds international honours, including that of Chevalier du Mérite National in France. and also distinctions from many foreign countries.
This conference is not just a retrospective; It is a call to rethink development strategies according to the realities of the country and its geopolitical environment. . In a context where Haiti, through CREGED, is looking for alternative socio-economic options, it is not too risky to argue that Professor Albagli's thinking could inspire innovative and effective policies for the country.
Sources
Sarkar, P., & Singer, H. W. (1991). Manufactured exports of developing countries and their terms of trade since 1965. World Development, 19(4), 333-340. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(91)90180-P
Erten, B., & Ocampo, J.A. (2013). Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century. World Development, 44-14-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.11.013
Rodrik, D. (2017). Population and the economics of globalization (No.. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w23559
Wang, Q., Sun, T. & Li, R. Does artificial intelligence (AI) reduce ecological footprint? The role of globalization. About Sci Pollut Res 30, 123948–123965 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-31076-5
Quetya AUBIN
Haiti-Antilles Pole, Haiti Science and Society (HaSci-So)
Team of Scientific Partners for Research Communication (E-PSi-CoRe)
quetyaaubin25@gmail.com
